Posted by
Kenneth G. Davenport on Saturday, August 23, 2008 11:35:31 AM
I
have mixed feelings about Obama's choice of Joe Biden for VP. On the one hand, since Obama may (unbelievably) actually get elected
I in November, I'm somewhat satisfied with the choice. There is nothing scarier to me than an Obama presidency with another foreign policy neophyte (like Bayh or Kaine) in the #2 spot. At least in Biden Obama will have some "adult supervision" of sorts, a deep base of experience and some seasoning on issues of national security. In the "what do we do if Obama wins" scenario, Biden was the best choice for Veep.
Having said that, the Biden selection is both dangerous for Obama and a huge opportunity for McCain. Here's why:
1). Obama has based his entire campaign on changing the "politics of Washington". Though he hasn't really campaigned as an outsider, the dominant theme of his candidacy is "change". Picking Biden, first elected to the Senate in 1972 and the ultimate fixture there, hardly is reassuring to his core of support that seeks something of a revolution in Washington. It shows again how fake his campaign is -- and it may cause people to start looking more deeply at what he's really saying on the trail. We can only hope this to be the case.
2). The choice if Biden shows clearly that through all this bravado, ego and confidence, Obama actually questions his own experience to be president. Its a little like George Bush picking Dick Cheney as VP in 2000; through all that Texas bravado, Bush knew that he needed seasoned help at the executive level to govern the country. It is clear now that Cheney had an out-sized influence on Bush after 9/11 -- and whatever you think about the Iraq war, it shows that early on, an inexperienced President can be dramatically influenced by a far more experienced #2. So, Obama understands that he isn't really up to the task of doing this alone -- which again, I have mixed feelings about. On the one hand it proves that he is a total poser who is already over his head -- not a good thing for a president. On the other, it also shows that maybe he really knows he's clueless when it comes to foreign policy and that he needs the help of someone more seasoned than he is. That means he may not be the egomaniac I feared he is. We'll see.
3). Biden is both a plus and a big potential liability on the campaign trail. He's had a history of "speaking first and thinking later", and tends generally to talk too much. He's had a number of failed presidential bids himself, and has said some phenomenally stupid things in debates and in off-the-cuff remarks. His 1988 bid for the Democrat nomination was torpedoed by the revelation that he had plagiarized large portions of a speech by then-Labour leader Neil Kinnock of Great Britain. Biden also failed a class at Syracuse University Law School after copying a paper in a legal methods course. Those issues will certainly follow him into the campaign. But he also has some of the same "human" characteristics of John McCain which make him a good campaigner: a sense of humor, a quick wit and some genuine charm that voters tend to respond to.
4). To many of those who support Obama, however, Biden represents the past, not the future. He's a "old, gray haired white guy". He's not young, hip or cool. I suspect that a huge number of voters are on the Obama band wagon for all the wrong reasons -- because he's black, young and hip -- and to those people, the Biden choice looks like something of a sell-out. It may prove to de-energize the Democrat's base a bit, which is a good thing for McCain. For many on the left, Biden simply won't be liberal enough -- Biden supported the 2002 Iraq War Resolution, for example. He has since regretted that decision and to this day was against the surge, preferring a policy of splitting up Iraq into three seperate federal territories. He actually now admits that though the surge has helped. it was till "against American interests". That's a position that will be hard to support now that he is the general election.
Finally, the Biden choice put forward an interesting challenge to McCain. Obama used his Veep 
choice to admit a weakness and provide some wisdom to the ticket. How will McCain respond? My guess is that he will make something of a mirror choice by picking someone young, dynamic and conservative. Someone like Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota. It will be the opposite "May-December" ticket that the Democrats have -- though stronger because the experience and judgment will be at the top of the ticket, not the bottom. Its a great choice for McCain to signal both that "I'm in charge" and that "I don't need any help on day one unlike that other guy over there."
Exactly. The Biden selection presents a great opportunity for McCain to hammer into November. Now he just needs to be smart and strategic in his own choice. Let's hope he will be.