Posted by
Kenneth G. Davenport on Tuesday, January 08, 2008 1:39:43 PM
What a difference a week makes. Barack Obama's meteoric rise in race for the Democratic nomination has been quite a spectacle -- almost as fascinating as watching the vaunted Clinton machine implode. This has been a momentum swing of amazing speed and depth; Obama will likely win New Hampshire today by double digits, and has all the momentum going into Michigan and South Carolina. Key will be his ability to turn Clinton's support among blacks to his side -- a trend that polls seem to show already happening. And, to top it off, Clinton is already having money troubles -- a problem sure to get worse as it become clearer that Obama now sure seems to be the candidate to beat. It's hard to ever count the Clinton's out, but you have to think that Obama now has a good shot at being the Democratic nominee.
Which should give Republicans pause. Obama is a more formidable candidate for the general election than Hillary Clinton, whose high negatives would surely have mobilized Republicans to get out the vote. Obama has none of Clinton's baggage and none of his polarizing personality. He's fresh, new and likable, and he's pushing an agenda of "change" without the partisan venom that has been so corrosive over the past several decades. It's appealing on its surface -- which is, unfortunately, about as deep as many people go when evaluating candidates.
Obama definitely has the potential of being a true crossover candidate -- getting support from both independents and Republicans, which will make him very formidable. I've heard a number of self-described "conservatives" saying openly that they'd rather support Obama than vote for a John McCain or a Rudy Giuliani. Some even liken him to a new Ronald Reagan.
This is shocking given Obama's record -- because while he may be both charismatic and a good communicator, he is far more liberal than Hillary Clinton. The left-leaning Americans for Democratic Action rates Obama's voting record in the Senate at 97.5 percent, near perfection for liberal Democrats. The American Conservative Union, the ADA's ideological opposite, rates Obama's voting record at a rock-bottom 8 percent. Both ratings leave little doubt that Obama's actual votes make him a traditional, liberal Democrat -- not a unifying moderate who can transcend bipartisan "politics as usual".
Telling also is that Obama's record raises another issue of concern – his tendency to duck tough issues. In the Illinois Legislature, Obama compiled a record of voting “present” on controversial and politically explosive bills. However politically convenient, this isn't leadership. Obama's three years in the U.S. Senate are similarly devoid of any leadership examples on legislation of consequence -- and for the past year he's been on the road campaigning for president. It doesn't inspire a lot of confidence that Obama has the toughness to lead when decisions are difficult. And which decisions aren't difficult when you are president of the United States?
So, what kind of president would Obama be? If his record is any indication, a very liberal one. And without the foreign policy bona fides that are sorely needed at this time, it is hard for me to fathom how any conservative could actually cross over to vote for him. I think Clinton posed the right question yesterday when speaking about Obama: Looks good, but "where's the beef"?